Cornyn Trouncing Noriega

Rhymes With Right
June 10, 2008

Democrats have been sounding off about their candidate for Senate, Slick Rick Noriega. They keep telling us over and over again how he will soundly defeat the incumbent, Senator John Cornyn.

What do the polls say?

United States Senator John Cornyn has opened a seventeen percentage point lead in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. That's a significant improvement for the incumbent from a month ago when his lead dwindled to four percentage points.

Cornyn is supported by 86% of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72% of Democrats, down from 81% a month ago.

The Democrat leads among voters under 30, reflecting a nationwide trend. He is competitive among those who earn less than $40,000 a year. However, Cornyn has the advantage among adults over 30 and those with annual incomes topping $40,000.

Yeah, Noreiga was pulling close a month ago -- but I think this poll makes it pretty clear that the previous result was an outlier, one of those occasional results that does not present a true picture of the real world. After all, this result matches well with what other polls are showing.