Cornyn Up Big In Texas Senate Race

Left is Right & Right is Wrong
June 9, 2008

United States Senator John Cornyn has opened a seventeen percentage point lead in his bid for re-election. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state find Cornyn leading Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega 52% to 35%. That's a significant improvement for the incumbent from a month ago when his lead dwindled to four percentage points.

Cornyn is supported by 86% of Republicans and has a two-to-one edge among unaffiliated voters. Last month, his lead among the unaffiliateds was just four percentage points. Noreiga attracts 72% of Democrats, down from 81% a month ago.

The Democrat leads among voters under 30, reflecting a nationwide trend. He is competitive among those who earn less than $40,000 a year. However, Cornyn has the advantage among adults over 30 and those with annual incomes topping $40,000.

Incumbents who poll below 50% are generally considered vulnerable. Cornyn has moved slightly above that threshold, but many of his colleagues remain in challenging races. At least ten Republican Senate seats are potentially in play for Democrats including seats in Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Minnesota, Virginia, and Kentucky. So far, just two Democratic incumbents are polling below 50%--Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey.

In Texas, Cornyn is viewed favorably by 56% of the state's likely voters, up six points from a month ago. He is viewed unfavorably by 31%.

Noreiga earns positive reviews from 43% and negative assessments from 39%. Those figures are little changed.